After a heavy defeat to India, Pakistan’s future in the 2025 Asia Cup is now uncertain. A loss to Sri Lanka today could see their chances of reaching the final hang by a thread. But is it game over for them? Let’s break down the situation.
The Pressure Builds After Loss to India
Losing to India never fails to stir up pressure, especially when it’s Pakistan. After their seven-wicket loss to India in the group stage, Pakistan was on the edge. They needed to defeat the UAE to stay in contention, which, although tough, they managed to do. But after a narrow six-wicket defeat to India once again, the situation has become even more tense. Now, they must win both their remaining matches—against Sri Lanka and Bangladesh—to have any chance of making the final.
The Crucial Match Against Sri Lanka
Pakistan’s next game is against Sri Lanka, who are coming off a loss to Bangladesh but are still a strong team, having remained unbeaten in Group B. With a solid batting lineup led by Pathum Nissanka and a well-balanced bowling attack, Sri Lanka could catch Pakistan off guard if they don’t perform at their best. A loss today would push Pakistan to the brink of elimination, but can they still find a way to make it?
What Happens If Pakistan Loses to Sri Lanka?
If Pakistan loses to Sri Lanka, the points table will look like this: India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka will each have two points, while Pakistan will remain at zero. With three matches left in the group, including India vs Bangladesh, Pakistan vs Bangladesh, and India vs Sri Lanka, Pakistan’s chances will be slim but not entirely gone.
For Pakistan to stay alive in the tournament, the following conditions must be met:
- India needs to beat Bangladesh by a significant margin.
- Pakistan must then defeat Bangladesh by a significant margin.
- India must also beat Sri Lanka by a significant margin.
These scenarios would bring all three teams—Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh—on equal points, but qualification would depend on Net Run Rate. Right now, Pakistan has the worst NRR in the group at -0.689, while Sri Lanka sits at -0.121.
Can Pakistan Still Reach the Final?
If Pakistan loses to Sri Lanka, they won’t be eliminated outright but will need significant help from India. Pakistan would need to beat Bangladesh and hope that India’s victories over Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are convincing enough to allow Pakistan to jump over the others based on NRR.
Even then, their journey to the final will be a tough uphill battle, with their fate largely out of their hands. If they manage to get through, though, it seems that only India stands in their way to the title.
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